PoliCan considers that a riding is a bellwether if, on average for the last 30 years, it has voted on the side of the government at least 4 times out of 5, or 80%. For some, particularly statisticians, that threshold may seem like setting the bar low. However, upon exploring this section, you will find that relatively few ridings reach it. That said, you can adjust the bellwether years and the threshold at will.
At the federal level, with a perfect record for 40 years, Burlington, Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, St. Catharines, and Winnipeg South really stand out.
But in Alberta, which has had political dynasties, ridings marked as bellwether should rather be considered loyal.
PoliCan considers that a riding is a bellwether if, on average for the last 30 years, it has voted on the side of the government at least 4 times out of 5, or 80%. For some, particularly statisticians, that threshold may seem like setting the bar low. However, upon exploring this section, you will find that relatively few ridings reach it. That said, you can adjust the bellwether years and the threshold at will.
