Canada's electoral history from 1867 to today

The size of today's legislative assemblies

by Maurice Y. Michaud (he/him)

QuébecCanada's legislative assemblies vary considerably in size from one jurisdiction to another. Although one should make a distinction between eligible voters and overall population, the table below nonetheless provides some perspective on these variations by listing each jurisdiction with its estimated population in 2023 and the average number of people represented by each member. However, it is important to remember how that average number conceals how some jurisdictions may have:

  • protected seats such as the traditional Acadian ridings of Argyle, Clare and Richmond in Nova Scotia as well as Preston, a riding designed to encourage more African-Nova Scotian participation, and
     
  • large rural ridings in which the population is much smaller than the jurisdiction's average, such as the Ontario ridings of Kiiwetinoong (which is 68% indigenous) and Mushkegowuk—James Bay (which is 27% indigenous and 60% francophone). Together they cover slighly more than half of Ontario's territory but have less than 0.5% of the province's population whereas, speaking strictly in mathematical terms, a single riding in Ontario would be expected to have, on average, about 0.8% of the province's population.
Also, the population in some ridings might be noticeably higher than the average if it includes many young families, but the number of persons 18 years or over who are eligible to vote in those ridings could be in line with the jurisdiction's average.

Legend } p/s: Average population/seat
%s: Percentage of seats
Jurisdiction Federal Prov/Terr General Elections
Details Capital city Largest city Population  Seats p/s %s Seats p/s
1 CA Canada Ottawa Toronto 39,750,660
39,620,905
338
335
117,606
118,271
n/a 2021-09-20 2025-10-20*
9 AB Alberta Edmonton Calgary 4,645,229
11.72%
34 136,624 10.15% 87 53,393 2023-05-29 2027-05-31
8 BC British Columbia Victoria Vancouver 5,466,646
13.80%
42 130,158 12.54% 87 62,835 2020-10-24 2024-10-19
11 MB Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg 1,454,902
3.67%
14 103,922 4.18% 57 25,525 2023-10-03 2027-10-05
3 NB New Brunswick Fredericton Moncton 826,622
2.09%
10 82,662 2.99% 49 16,870 2020-09-14 2024-10-21
7 NL Newfoundland and Labrador St. John's St. John's 536,291
1.35%
7 76,613 2.09% 40 13,407 2021-03-25 2025-10-14
2 NS Nova Scotia Halifax Halifax 1,047,803
2.64%
11 95,255 3.28% 55 19,051 2021-08-17 2025-07-15
14 NT Northwest Territories Yellowknife Yellowknife 44,678
0.11%
1 n/a n/a 19 2,351 2023-11-14 2027-10-05
13 NU Nunavut Iqaluit Iqaluit 40,481
0.10%
1 n/a n/a 22 1,840 2021-10-25 2025-10-27
6 ON Ontario Toronto Toronto 15,457,075
39.01%
121 127,744 36.12% 124 124,654 2022-06-02 2026-06-04
4 PE Prince Edward Island Charlottetown Charlottetown 171,790
0.43%
4 42,948 1.19% 27 6,363 2023-04-03 2027-10-04
5 QC Québec Québec Montréal 8,814,007
22.25%
78 113,000 23.28% 125 70,512 2022-10-03 2026-10-05
10 SK Saskatchewan Regina Saskatoon 1,200,540
3.03%
14 85,753 4.18% 61 19,681 2020-10-26 2024-10-28
12 YT Yukon Whitehorse Whitehorse 44,596
0.11%
1 n/a n/a 19 2,347 2021-04-12 2025-11-03*
Excluding the territories. The average population/seat is calculated with the population of the provinces only.

Note: At the provincial or territorial levels, except for the three Maritime provinces, a number of far-northern seats are in fact excluded from the jurisdiction's calculation of the average population/seat, but the calculations presented in this table do not exclude them. As a result, the official figure used by each jurisdiction is higher.

* The current context could lead to a general election being held sooner.

At the federal level, the original intention was that the number of seats for each province should be proportional to its demographic weight within the country. However, it wasn't long before some provinces saw their number of seats in the Commons decrease as the more populous provinces — Ontario, Québec, British Columbia, and Alberta — grew at a faster rate than the smaller provinces. In fact, now estimated at 536,291, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador was estimated to have reached 580,369 in 1993.

What ought to stand out from this table is that, as a result of amendments to the representation formula to prevent provinces from losing seats, the large provinces (except Québec) are now considerably underrepresented in Parliament. This is in spite of the fact that the number of seats went from 264 in 1968 to 338 in 2012, with the 2012 redistribution adding 15 seats to Ontario, 6 each to British Columbia and Alberta, and 3 to Québec. In fact, the 1968 redistribution was the last one in which provinces lost seats, with some restored in 1979 (-4 in Saskatchewan, then +1 to reach its current number of 14; -1 in Manitoba, returning to its current 14; -1 in Québec, returning to 75, and -1 in Nova Scotia, returning to its current number of 11.)

Ontario seems to have stayed relatively quiet about it (although it never refused more seats), but the same cannot be said of British Columbia and Alberta. And rightly so! In 1968, those two provinces respectively had 21 and 19 seats. By the 2012 redistribution, they had reached 42 and 34. But the representation formula, coupled perhaps with a desire to prevent the number of seats from ballooning, has rendered these provinces' under­repre­sen­tation chronic.

But why not rethink the formula? Not scrap it! Just rethink it. Because it's hard to scrap something that's entrenched into the Constitution...




© 2019, 2024 :: PoliCan.ca (Maurice Y. Michaud)
Pub.: 30 Jun 2022 01:42
Rev.: 11 Nov 2023 19:44 (but data presented dynamically)