Canada's electoral history from 1867 to today
Base → Elections → What can we expect?
Printable version

What can we expect (according to Philippe)?

by Maurice Y. Michaud (he/him)

Philippe J. Fournier
© Photo Philippe J. Fournier / Radio Canada — Fair use

I raise my hat to this man: Philippe Fournier! A teacher of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal and media commentator on Canadian politics, Philippe created 338Canada in 2017 (and its French counterpart Qc125). Not himself a pollster, he has instead developed a sophisticated model that looks at and weighs the different polls on upcoming elections to determine the probability of which party will win in each riding. So far his accuracy rate has been amazing, sometimes calling some ridings in a way that no individual poll predicted. His only big miss of late has been the 2021 Nova Scotia general election, which everybody including himself was calling for a Liberal majority that turned out to be a Progressive Conservative majority. But that's only a blemish on an otherwise impressive record.

Unlike 338Canada, PoliCan makes absolutely no predictions on upcoming elections, as the purpose of this site is to consolidate permanent and easily searchable archives of all federal and provincial elections ever held in Canada since Confederation, as well as on the people who ran in those elections. However, in order to gather, verify, cross-reference and enter all that information, I must prepare well ahead of time so that once those elections have occurred, I can post that information online as quickly as possible. But I stress that all the credit for the predictions found on this page belongs to Philippe! At most, this is just a mirror of his site.

However, it then occurred to me... Given that I already have the structure in place for those upcoming elections, why not make that information available right away?

So here it is! But of course, to get the detailed riding-by-riding analyses, please go directly to the source. Plus it can take me some time to catch up with Philippe.

See Philippe's predictions for...
Election
The projected winning parties are based on data taken from 338canada.comOpens a new window according to the 9 October 2024 update.
The number of seats may change (from 124 to 125) if Ontario continues its policy of using the same map as in federal elections, with exception for the northern part of the province.
Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario Ontario New Democrats Ontario Liberals Green Party of Ontario Independent
 4 June 2026
124 seats
PC NDP LIB GRN IND
88 20 13 2 1
Net gains / Net losses
+8 -8 +4 0 -4
— Majority = 63 seats
† Not re-offering   ✓ Re-elected    ✗ Defeated
G = Gain
Ridings Incumbents Proj.
1. ON Ajax·····························································
PC
✓
 PC
2. ON Algoma—Manitoulin················································
IND
†
 NDP G
3. ON Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill··································
PC
✓
 PC
4. ON Barrie—Innisfil··················································
PC
✓
 PC
5. ON Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte···································
PC
✓
 PC
6. ON Bay of Quinte····················································
PC
✓
 PC
7. ON Beaches—East York················································
LIB
✓
 LIB
8. ON Brampton Centre··················································
PC
✓
 PC
9. ON Brampton East····················································
PC
✓
 PC
10. ON Brampton North···················································
PC
✓
 PC
11. ON Brampton South···················································
PC
✓
 PC
12. ON Brampton West····················································
PC
✓
 PC
13. ON Brantford—Brant··················································
PC
✓
 PC
14. ON Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound············································
PC
†
 PC
15. ON Burlington·······················································
PC
✓
 PC
16. ON Cambridge························································
PC
✓
 PC
17. ON Carleton·························································
PC
✓
 PC
18. ON Chatham-Kent—Leamington··········································
PC
✓
 PC
19. ON Davenport························································
NDP
✓
 NDP
20. ON Don Valley East··················································
LIB
✓
 LIB
21. ON Don Valley North·················································
IND
✗
 PC G
22. ON Don Valley West··················································
LIB
✓
 LIB
23. ON Dufferin—Caledon·················································
PC
✓
 PC
24. ON Durham···························································
PC
✓
 PC
25. ON Eglinton—Lawrence················································
PC
✓
 PC
26. ON Elgin—Middlesex—London···········································
PC
✓
 PC
27. ON Essex····························································
PC
✓
 PC
28. ON Etobicoke Centre·················································
PC
✓
 PC
29. ON Etobicoke North··················································
PC
✓
 PC
30. ON Etobicoke—Lakeshore··············································
PC
✗
 LIB G
31. ON Flamborough—Glanbrook············································
PC
✓
 PC
32. ON Glengarry—Prescott—Russell·······································
PC
✓
 PC
33. ON Guelph···························································
GRN
✓
 GRN
34. ON Haldimand—Norfolk················································
IND
✓
 IND
35. ON Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock··································
PC
✓
 PC
36. ON Hamilton Centre··················································
IND
✗
 NDP G
37. ON Hamilton East—Stoney Creek·······································
PC
✓
 PC
38. ON Hamilton Mountain················································
NDP
†
 NDP
39. ON Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas····································
NDP
✓
 NDP
40. ON Hastings—Lennox and Addington····································
PC
✓
 PC
41. ON Humber River—Black Creek·········································
NDP
✗
 LIB G
42. ON Huron—Bruce······················································
PC
✓
 PC
43. ON Kanata—Carleton··················································
LIB
✗
 PC G
44. ON Kenora—Rainy River···············································
PC
✓
 PC
45. ON Kiiwetinoong·····················································
NDP
✓
 NDP
46. ON King—Vaughan·····················································
PC
✓
 PC
47. ON Kingston and the Islands·········································
LIB
✓
 LIB
48. ON Kitchener Centre·················································
GRN
✓
 GRN
49. ON Kitchener South—Hespeler·········································
PC
✓
 PC
50. ON Kitchener—Conestoga··············································
PC
✓
 PC
51. ON Lambton—Kent—Middlesex···········································
PC
✓
 PC
52. ON Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston········································
PC
✓
 PC
53. ON Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes················
PC
✓
 PC
54. ON London North Centre··············································
NDP
✓
 NDP
55. ON London West······················································
NDP
✓
 NDP
56. ON London—Fanshawe··················································
NDP
✓
 NDP
57. ON Markham—Stouffville··············································
PC
✓
 PC
58. ON Markham—Thornhill················································
PC
✓
 PC
59. ON Markham—Unionville···············································
PC
✓
 PC
60. ON Milton···························································
PC
✓
 PC
61. ON Mississauga Centre···············································
PC
✓
 PC
62. ON Mississauga East—Cooksville······································
IND
†
 PC G
63. ON Mississauga—Erin Mills···········································
PC
✓
 PC
64. ON Mississauga—Lakeshore············································
PC
✓
 PC
65. ON Mississauga—Malton···············································
PC
✓
 PC
66. ON Mississauga—Streetsville·········································
PC
✓
 PC
67. ON Mushkegowuk—James Bay············································
NDP
✓
 NDP
68. ON Nepean···························································
PC
†
 PC
69. ON Newmarket—Aurora·················································
PC
✓
 PC
70. ON Niagara Centre···················································
NDP
✗
 PC G
71. ON Niagara Falls····················································
NDP
✓
 NDP
72. ON Niagara West·····················································
PC
✓
 PC
73. ON Nickel Belt······················································
NDP
✓
 NDP
74. ON Nipissing························································
PC
✓
 PC
75. ON Northumberland—Peterborough South································
PC
✓
 PC
76. ON Oakville·························································
PC
✓
 PC
77. ON Oakville North—Burlington········································
PC
✓
 PC
78. ON Orléans··························································
LIB
✓
 LIB
79. ON Oshawa···························································
NDP
✗
 PC G
80. ON Ottawa Centre····················································
NDP
†
 NDP
81. ON Ottawa South·····················································
LIB
✓
 LIB
82. ON Ottawa West—Nepean···············································
NDP
✗
 PC G
83. ON Ottawa—Vanier····················································
LIB
✓
 LIB
84. ON Oxford···························································
PC
✓
 PC
85. ON Parkdale—High Park···············································
NDP
†
 NDP
86. ON Parry Sound—Muskoka··············································
PC
✓
 PC
87. ON Perth—Wellington·················································
PC
✓
 PC
88. ON Peterborough—Kawartha············································
PC
✓
 PC
89. ON Pickering—Uxbridge···············································
PC
✓
 PC
90. ON Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke·······································
PC
✓
 PC
91. ON Richmond Hill····················································
PC
✓
 PC
92. ON Sarnia—Lambton···················································
PC
✓
 PC
93. ON Sault Ste. Marie·················································
PC
✓
 PC
94. ON Scarborough Centre···············································
PC
✓
 PC
95. ON Scarborough North················································
PC
†
 PC
96. ON Scarborough Southwest············································
NDP
✓
 NDP
97. ON Scarborough—Agincourt············································
PC
✓
 PC
98. ON Scarborough—Guildwood············································
LIB
✓
 LIB
99. ON Scarborough—Rouge Park···········································
PC
✓
 PC
100. ON Simcoe North·····················································
PC
✓
 PC
101. ON Simcoe—Grey······················································
PC
✓
 PC
102. ON Spadina—Fort York················································
NDP
✓
 NDP
103. ON St. Catharines···················································
NDP
✗
 PC G
104. ON Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry··································
PC
✓
 PC
105. ON Sudbury··························································
NDP
✓
 NDP
106. ON Thornhill························································
PC
✓
 PC
107. ON Thunder Bay—Atikokan·············································
PC
✓
 PC
108. ON Thunder Bay—Superior North·······································
NDP
✗
 LIB G
109. ON Timiskaming—Cochrane·············································
NDP
✗
 PC G
110. ON Timmins··························································
PC
✓
 PC
111. ON Toronto Centre···················································
NDP
✗
 LIB G
112. ON Toronto—Danforth·················································
NDP
✓
 NDP
113. ON Toronto—St. Paul's···············································
NDP
✗
 LIB G
114. ON University—Rosedale··············································
NDP
✓
 NDP
115. ON Vaughan—Woodbridge···············································
PC
✓
 PC
116. ON Waterloo·························································
NDP
✓
 NDP
117. ON Wellington—Halton Hills··········································
PC
✓
 PC
118. ON Whitby···························································
PC
✓
 PC
119. ON Willowdale·······················································
PC
✓
 PC
120. ON Windsor West·····················································
NDP
✗
 PC G
121. ON Windsor—Tecumseh·················································
PC
✓
 PC
122. ON York Centre······················································
PC
✓
 PC
123. ON York South—Weston················································
PC
✓
 PC
124. ON York—Simcoe······················································
PC
✓
 PC

© 2019, 2024 :: PoliCan.ca (Maurice Y. Michaud) & 338Canada.com / Qc125.com (Philippe J. Fournier)
Pub.:  6 Jul 2024 19:15
Rev.: 12 Oct 2024 10:42 (but data presented dynamically)

© 2019-2024 :: PoliCan.ca
Given that electoral results are by their very nature public information, such data that can be found in PoliCan are considered to be in the public domain. However, unless indicated otherwise, all other elements — the concept of consolidating these data into a single format, the detailed research on each election, legislature and candidate, the organization and searchability of the data, the programming allowing the entry and maintenance of the data, as well as the analyses and explanatory articles found in this website — are the intellectual property of Maurice Y. Michaud.