Base → Elections → What can we expect?

What can we expect (according to Philippe’s analysis)?

by Maurice Y. Michaud (he/him)

Philippe J. Fournier
© Photo Philippe J. Fournier / Radio Canada — Fair use

I raise my hat to this man: Philippe J. Fournier! A teacher of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal and media commentator on Canadian politics, Philippe created 338Canada in 2017 (and its French counterpart Qc125). Not himself a pollster, he has instead developed a sophisticated model that looks at and weighs the different polls on upcoming elections to determine the probability of which party will win in each riding. So far his accuracy rate has been amazing, sometimes calling some ridings in a way that no individual poll predicted. His only big miss of late has been the 2021 Nova Scotia general election, which everybody including himself was calling for a Liberal majority that turned out to be a Progressive Conservative majority. But that’s a blemish on an 89.0% success rate from 2018 to 2025.

Unlike 338Canada, PoliCan makes absolutely no predictions on upcoming elections, as the purpose of this site is to consolidate permanent and easily searchable archives of all federal and provincial elections ever held in Canada since Confederation, as well as on the people who ran in those elections. However, in order to gather, verify, cross-reference and enter all that information, I must prepare well ahead of time so that once those elections have occurred, I can post that information online as quickly as possible. But I stress that all the credit for the predictions found on this page belongs to Philippe! At most, this is just a mirror of his site.

However, it then occurred to me... Given that I already have the structure in place for those upcoming elections, why not make that information available right away?

So here it is! But of course, to get the detailed riding-by-riding analyses, please go directly to the source. Plus it can take me some time to catch up with Philippe.

The projected winning parties are based on data taken from 338canada.com/quebec/ according to the 12 August 2026 update. Clicking on the icon next to the name of the riding opens a new window to that riding on 338canada.com. Incumbents who are not representing updated 7 August 2026. The new electoral map has 127 seats.
						5 October 2026 127 seats
PQ	QLP	CPQ	QS	CAQ	IND
64	39	11	7	6	0
Net gains / Net losses
+57	+21	+11	-4	-72	-8
— Majority = 64 seats (+1)

Candidacies, Percentages, Ranks

Parties			Can.	%	Rank
					1	2	3	4	5	6−
	PQ	Parti Québécois	75	29.77%	64	37	26	——	——	——
	QLP	Quebec Liberal Party	86	26.00%	39	14	39	27	8	——
	CAQ	Coalition Avenir Québec	88	19.71%	6	57	33	17	13	1
	CPQ	Conservative Party of Quebec	65	13.67%	11	15	23	45	32	——
	QS	Québec solidaire	68	10.57%	7	4	6	38	72	——
	GPQ	Green Party of Quebec	18	0.10%	——	——	——	——	1	18
	CQ	Climat Québec	27	0.09%	——	——	——	——	——	27
	CAPQ	Canadian Party of Quebec	21	0.03%	——	——	——	——	——	21
	AUTO	Autonomist Team	8	0.02%	——	——	——	——	——	8
	COMM	Quebec Communist Party	10	0.02%	——	——	——	——	——	10
	PREQ	Présence Québec	12	0.01%	——	——	——	——	——	12
No logo	QNP	Quebec Null Party	1	0.00%	——	——	——	——	1	——
	PAPE	Parti accès propriété et équité	1	0.00%	——	——	——	——	——	1
	IND	Independent	2	0.00%	——	——	——	——	——	2
	BPQ	Bloc Pot	1	0.00%	——	——	——	——	——	1
	DDQ	Direct Democracy	3	0.00%	——	——	——	——	——	3
Total			486

			† Not re-offering   ✓ Re-elected   ✗ Defeated
Gain = G
↴  Toss Up < 70.0% Leaning 70.0%—89.9% Likely 90.0%—99.8% Safe >= 99.9%
Ridings			Incumbents			Projected		2nd
1.	QC	Abitibi-Est ··············································	QLP	Pierre Dufour	✗	PQ	G	QLP
2.	QC	Abitibi-Ouest ············································	CAQ	Suzanne Blais	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
3.	QC	Acadie ···················································	QLP	André Morin	✓	QLP		CPQ
4.	QC	Anjou—Louis-Riel ·········································	CAQ	Karine Boivin Roy	✗	QLP	G	PQ
5.	QC	Argenteuil ···············································	CAQ	Agnès Grondin	†	PQ	G	QLP
6.	QC	Arthabaska—L'Érable ······································	PQ	Alex Boissonneault	✓	PQ		CPQ
7.	QC	Beauce-Nord ··············································	CAQ	Luc Provençal	†	CPQ	G	PQ
8.	QC	Beauce-Sud ···············································	CAQ	Samuel Poulin	✗	CPQ	G	CAQ
9.	QC	Beauharnois ··············································	CAQ	Claude Reid	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
10.	QC	Bellechasse ··············································	CAQ	Stéphanie Lachance	✗	CPQ	G	CAQ
11.	QC	Bellefeuille ·············································				PQ	G	CAQ
12.	QC	Berthier ·················································	CAQ	Caroline Proulx	†	PQ	G	CAQ
13.	QC	Bertrand ·················································	CAQ	France-Élaine Duranceau	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
14.	QC	Blainville ···············································	CAQ	Mario Laframboise	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
15.	QC	Bonaventure ··············································	CAQ	Catherine Blouin	✗	PQ	G	QLP
16.	QC	Borduas ··················································	CAQ	Simon Jolin-Barrette	✓	CAQ		PQ
17.	QC	Bourassa-Sauvé ···········································	QLP	Madwa-Nika Cadet	✓	QLP		PQ
18.	QC	Brome-Missisquoi ·········································	CAQ   QLP	Isabelle Charest Fred Beauchemin	† ✓	QLP	G	PQ
19.	QC	Camille-Laurin ···········································	PQ	Paul St-Pierre Plamondon	✓	PQ		QLP
20.	QC	Chambly ··················································	CAQ	Jean-François Roberge	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
21.	QC	Champlain ················································	CAQ	Sonia LeBel	†	CAQ		PQ
22.	QC	Chapleau ·················································	CAQ	Mathieu Lévesque	✗	QLP	G	CAQ
23.	QC	Charlesbourg ·············································	CAQ	Jonatan Julien	†	PQ	G	CPQ
24.	QC	Charlevoix—Côte-de-Beaupré ·······························	CAQ	Kariane Bourassa	✗	PQ	G	CPQ
25.	QC	Châteauguay ··············································	CAQ	Marie-Belle Gendron	✗	QLP	G	PQ
26.	QC	Chauveau ·················································	CAQ	Sylvain Lévesque	†	CPQ	G	PQ
27.	QC	Chicoutimi ···············································	PQ	Marie-Karlynn Laflamme	✓	PQ		CAQ
28.	QC	Chomedey ·················································	IND	Sona Lakhoyan Olivier	†	QLP	G	CPQ
29.	QC	Chutes-de-la-Chaudière ···································	CAQ	Martine Biron	✗	CPQ	G	CAQ
30.	QC	Côte-du-Sud ··············································	CAQ	Mathieu Rivest	✗	PQ	G	CPQ
31.	QC	D'Arcy-McGee ·············································	QLP	Elisabeth Prass	✓	QLP		CPQ
32.	QC	Daniel-Johnson ···········································	CAQ	André Lamontagne	†	PQ	G	CAQ
33.	QC	Deux-Montagnes ···········································	CAQ	Benoit Charette	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
34.	QC	Drummond—Bois-Francs ·····································	CAQ	Sébastien Schneeberger	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
35.	QC	Dubuc ····················································	IND	François Tremblay	†	PQ	G	CAQ
36.	QC	Duplessis ················································	CAQ	Kateri Champagne Jourdain	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
37.	QC	Fabre ····················································	CAQ	Alice Abou-Khalil	†	QLP	G	PQ
38.	QC	Gaspé ····················································	CAQ	Stéphane Sainte-Croix	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
39.	QC	Gatineau ·················································	CAQ	Robert Bussière	†	QLP	G	PQ
40.	QC	Gouin ····················································	QS	Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois	†	QS		PQ
41.	QC	Granby ···················································	CAQ	François Bonnardel	†	CAQ		PQ
42.	QC	Groulx ···················································	CAQ	Éric Girard	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
43.	QC	Hochelaga-Maisonneuve ····································	QS	Alexandre Leduc	✓	QS		PQ
44.	QC	Hull ·····················································	CAQ	Suzanne Tremblay	✗	QLP	G	PQ
45.	QC	Huntingdon ···············································	CAQ	Carole Mallette	†	QLP	G	PQ
46.	QC	Iberville ················································	CAQ	Audrey Bogemans	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
47.	QC	Îles-de-la-Madeleine ·····································	PQ	Joël Arseneau	✓	PQ		QLP
48.	QC	Jacques-Cartier ··········································	QLP	Greg Kelley	✓	QLP		CPQ
49.	QC	Jean-Lesage ··············································	QS	Sol Zanetti	✓	QS		PQ
50.	QC	Jean-Talon ···············································	PQ	Pascal Paradis	✓	PQ		QLP
51.	QC	Jeanne-Mance—Viger ·······································	QLP	Filomena Rotiroti	✓	QLP		PQ
52.	QC	Joliette ·················································	CAQ	François St-Louis	†	PQ	G	CAQ
53.	QC	Jonquière ················································	CAQ	Yannick Gagnon	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
54.	QC	L'Assomption ·············································	CAQ	François Legault	†	PQ	G	CAQ
55.	QC	La Peltrie ···············································	CAQ   CPQ	Éric Caire Maïté Blanchette Vézina	† ✓	CPQ	G	PQ
56.	QC	La Pinière ···············································	QLP	Linda Caron	✓	QLP		PQ
57.	QC	La Prairie ···············································	IND	Christian Dubé	†	PQ	G	CAQ
58.	QC	Labelle ··················································	CAQ	Chantale Jeannotte	†	PQ	G	CAQ
59.	QC	Lac-Saint-Jean ···········································	CAQ	Éric Girard	†	PQ	G	QLP
60.	QC	LaFontaine ···············································	QLP	Marc Tanguay	✓	QLP		CPQ
61.	QC	Laurier-Dorion ···········································	QS	Andrés Fontecilla	✗	QLP	G	QS
62.	QC	Laval-des-Rapides ········································	CAQ	Céline Haytayan	†	QLP	G	PQ
63.	QC	Laviolette—Saint-Maurice ·································	CAQ	Marie-Louise Tardif	†	PQ	G	CAQ
64.	QC	Les Plaines ··············································	CAQ	Lucie Lecours	†	PQ	G	CAQ
65.	QC	Lévis ····················································	CAQ	Bernard Drainville	✗	CPQ	G	CAQ
66.	QC	Lotbinière-Frontenac ·····································	CAQ	Isabelle Lecours	†	CPQ	G	PQ
67.	QC	Louis-Hébert ·············································	CAQ	Geneviève Guilbault	†	PQ	G	CAQ
68.	QC	Marguerite-Bourgeoys ·····································				QLP	G	CPQ
69.	QC	Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie ·······························				CAQ	G	PQ
70.	QC	Marie-Victorin ···········································	CAQ	Shirley Dorismond	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
71.	QC	Marquette ················································	QLP	Enrico Ciccone	✓	QLP		PQ
72.	QC	Maskinongé ···············································	CAQ	Simon Allaire	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
73.	QC	Masson ···················································	CAQ	Mathieu Lemay	†	PQ	G	CAQ
74.	QC	Matane-Matapédia-Mitis ···································	PQ	Pascal Bérubé	✓	PQ		CAQ
75.	QC	Maurice-Richard ··········································	QS	Haroun Bouazzi	†	PQ	G	QLP
76.	QC	Mégantic ·················································	CAQ	François Jacques	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
77.	QC	Mercier ··················································	QS	Ruba Ghazal	✓	QS		QLP
78.	QC	Mille-Îles ···············································	QLP	Virginie Dufour	✓	QLP		PQ
79.	QC	Mirabel ··················································	CAQ	Sylvie D'Amours	†	PQ	G	CAQ
80.	QC	Mont-Royal—Outremont ·····································	QLP	Michelle Setlakwe	✓	QLP		PQ
81.	QC	Montarville ··············································	CAQ	Nathalie Roy	✓	CAQ		PQ
82.	QC	Montmorency ··············································	CAQ	Jean-François Simard	✗	CPQ	G	CAQ
83.	QC	Nelligan ·················································	QLP	Monsef Derraji	✓	QLP		CPQ
84.	QC	Nicolet-Bécancour ········································	CAQ	Donald Martel	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
85.	QC	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce ······································	QLP	Désirée McGraw	✓	QLP		CPQ
86.	QC	Orford ···················································	IND	Gilles Bélanger	†	QLP	G	PQ
87.	QC	Papineau ·················································	CAQ	Mathieu Lacombe	†	QLP	G	CAQ
88.	QC	Pierre-Laporte ···········································	IND	Isabelle Poulet	†	QLP	G	PQ
89.	QC	Pointe-aux-Trembles ······································	CAQ	Chantal Rouleau	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
90.	QC	Pontiac ··················································	QLP	André Fortin	✓	QLP		PQ
91.	QC	Portneuf ·················································	CAQ	Vincent Caron	✗	CPQ	G	PQ
92.	QC	Prévost ··················································	CAQ	Sonia Bélanger	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
93.	QC	René-Lévesque ············································	CAQ	Yves Montigny	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
94.	QC	Repentigny ···············································	CAQ	Pascale Déry	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
95.	QC	Richelieu ················································	CAQ	Jean-Bernard Émond	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
96.	QC	Richmond ·················································	CAQ	André Bachand	†	QLP	G	CAQ
97.	QC	Rimouski ·················································				PQ	G	CAQ
98.	QC	Rivière-du-Loup—Témiscouata—Les Basques ··················	CAQ	Amélie Dionne	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
99.	QC	Robert-Baldwin ···········································	QLP	Brigitte Garceau	✓	QLP		CPQ
100.	QC	Roberval ·················································	CAQ	Nancy Guillemette	†	PQ	G	CAQ
101.	QC	Rosemont ·················································	IND	Vincent Marissal	†	QS	G	PQ
102.	QC	Rousseau ·················································	CAQ	Louis-Charles Thouin	✗	PQ	G	CAQ
103.	QC	Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue ······························	CAQ	Daniel Bernard	†	PQ	G	CAQ
104.	QC	Saint-François ···········································	CAQ	Geneviève Hébert	✗	PQ	G	QLP
105.	QC	Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne ··································	QS	Guillaume Cliche-Rivard	✗	QLP	G	QS
106.	QC	Saint-Hyacinthe ··········································	CAQ	Chantal Soucy	†	PQ	G	CAQ
107.	QC	Saint-Jean ···············································	CAQ	Louis Lemieux	†	PQ	G	CAQ
108.	QC	Saint-Jérôme ·············································	IND	Youri Chassin	†	PQ	G	CAQ
109.	QC	Saint-Laurent ············································	IND	Marwah Rizqy	†	QLP	G	CPQ
110.	QC	Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques ·······························	QS	Manon Massé	†	QS		PQ
111.	QC	Sainte-Rose ··············································	CAQ	Christopher Skeete	✗	QLP	G	CAQ
112.	QC	Sanguinet ················································				PQ	G	CAQ
113.	QC	Sherbrooke ···············································	QS	Christine Labrie	†	PQ	G	QLP
114.	QC	Soulanges ················································	CAQ	Marilyne Picard	✗	QLP	G	CAQ
115.	QC	Taillon ··················································	CAQ	Lionel Carmant	†	PQ	G	QLP
116.	QC	Taschereau ···············································	QS	Étienne Grandmont	✓	QS		PQ
117.	QC	Terrebonne ···············································	PQ	Catherine Gentilcore	✓	PQ		CAQ
118.	QC	Trois-Rivières ···········································	CAQ   CAQ	Jean Boulet Christine Fréchette	† ✓	CAQ		PQ
119.	QC	Ungava ···················································	CAQ	Denis Lamothe	†	PQ	G	QLP
120.	QC	Vachon ···················································	CAQ	Ian Lafrenière	✗	PQ	G	QLP
121.	QC	Vanier-Les Rivières ······································	CAQ	Mario Asselin	†	CPQ	G	PQ
122.	QC	Vaudreuil ················································	QLP	Marie-Claude Nichols	†	QLP		PQ
123.	QC	Verchères ················································	CAQ	Suzanne Roy	†	PQ	G	CAQ
124.	QC	Verdun ···················································	QS	Alejandra Zaga Mendez	✗	QLP	G	QS
125.	QC	Viau ·····················································	QLP	Frantz Benjamin	✓	QLP		QS
126.	QC	Vimont-Auteuil ···········································	CAQ	Valérie Schmaltz	✗	QLP	G	PQ
127.	QC	Westmount—Saint-Louis ····································	QLP	Jennifer Maccarone	✓	QLP		CPQ