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What can we expect (according to Philippe)?

by Maurice Y. Michaud (he/him)

Philippe J. Fournier
© Photo Philippe J. Fournier / Radio Canada — Fair use

I raise my hat to this man: Philippe Fournier! A teacher of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal and media commentator on Canadian politics, Philippe created 338Canada in 2017 (and its French counterpart Qc125). Not himself a pollster, he has instead developed a sophisticated model that looks at and weighs the different polls on upcoming elections to determine the probability of which party will win in each riding. So far his accuracy rate has been amazing, sometimes calling some ridings in a way that no individual poll predicted. His only big miss of late has been the 2021 Nova Scotia general election, which everybody including himself was calling for a Liberal majority that turned out to be a Progressive Conservative majority. But that's only a blemish on an otherwise impressive record.

Unlike 338Canada, PoliCan makes absolutely no predictions on upcoming elections, as the purpose of this site is to consolidate permanent and easily searchable archives of all federal and provincial elections ever held in Canada since Confederation, as well as on the people who ran in those elections. However, in order to gather, verify, cross-reference and enter all that information, I must prepare well ahead of time so that once those elections have occurred, I can post that information online as quickly as possible. But I stress that all the credit for the predictions found on this page belongs to Philippe! At most, this is just a mirror of his site.

However, it then occurred to me... Given that I already have the structure in place for those upcoming elections, why not make that information available right away?

So here it is! But of course, to get the detailed riding-by-riding analyses, please go directly to the source. Plus it can take me some time to catch up with Philippe.

The projected winning parties are based on data taken from 338canada.com according to the 4 October 2024 update. New electoral map, but same number of ridings as the last time (49). This change may lead in some cases some incumbents to run against each other, or in another riding. In other cases, the next "path point" of an MLA has yet to be determined.
				21 October 2024 49 seats
PC	LIB	GRN	IND
24	23	2	0
Net gains / Net losses
-3	+7	-1	-1
— Majority = 25 seats

Candidacies

	PC	Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick	49
	LIB	New Brunswick Liberal Party	49
	GRN	New Brunswick Green Party	45
	NDP	New Brunswick New Democratic Party	23
	LBT	Libertarian Party of New Brunswick	18
	PANB	People's Alliance of New Brunswick	13
	IND	Independent	4
	CPNB	Consensus NB Party	3
	SJP	Social Justice Party of New Brunswick	2
Total			206